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Grombobulous 10 minutes ago [-]
The last bullet point is the most important. The industry is most hyped about AI so that they can pay software developers $70k instead of paying them $200k.
I don’t really agree that AI can’t make development faster, though. What the author describes as the negative AI outcome is blind vibecoding. There are many other ways to use it, and even the basic “enhanced autocomplete” is a net benefit, especially since that functionality is dirt cheap or free.
classictraffic 2 hours ago [-]
To the author’s point about there not being enough evidence to support pro-AI claims — Additionally, there are studies and articles coming out showing those people are wrong and AI only makes people barely more efficient. Not the 10x tech CEOs are claiming while slashing thousands of jobs
>The not-so-quiet goal of the LLM push by big tech was to homogenise intellectual labour such that it can be made fungible. When labour is fungible you can swap it out whenever you like for an alternative, decreasing the bargaining power of workers.
Especially if you replace people with robots that don't need days off and have the people train their replacements.
smokedetector1 2 hours ago [-]
idk. I get more stuff done, faster, that I wouldn’t have been able to. You have to use it judiciously and with supervision - I can see how letting it get out of control would negate the benefits. But with good use, its undeniable.
twelve40 1 hours ago [-]
the decision i have to make dozens if not hundreds times a day: do i actually look at this crap or trust it blindly and let it slide? I'm honestly reading maybe 20% tops of what "I" produce (and what other people post for my review) I think you do lose skills and understanding that way. Sure, you can always ask the robot to do the tldr for you, but.... yeah, something is still lost, not in a good way.
E-Reverance 1 hours ago [-]
I think the fundamental rebuttal to this is merely that, we’re still so early, the $1.5 trillion number is irrelevant for developing technologies in the same way two women can’t birth a baby in 4.5 months
CoolestBeans 1 hours ago [-]
The $1.5 trillion number is extremely relevant because it makes the revenue numbers the industry has to hit higher and there's an expectation to see progress sooner before funding starts getting pulled back.
fragmede 12 minutes ago [-]
Given the advances since 2022 why would funding get pulled back? The endgame is replacing all office workers globally and so you get 10% of that market that's that's easily $1 trillion. A competent AI employee replaces a human the same way the car replaced the horse. Businesses will pay more for an AI employee that doesn't get sick or come in hung over over a human one and never goes to sleep. If OpenAI manages to crack that, and capture even 10% of the market globally, that's trillions.
twelve40 1 hours ago [-]
Yes, that's going on optimism. It's also possible that we're 80% there and the rest will take forever, while the loans and investments were taken out now.
8note 57 minutes ago [-]
are open ai, anthropic, zai, deepseek, cursor etc not new players? that benchmark seems like one defined to never be good enough
rhelz 27 minutes ago [-]
AI skeptics hate him. Here's how he doubled his productivity using AI with one simple trick.
You have to stop thinking like an employee or a worker bee, and start thinking like a boss.
Guess what, the work you give your boss isn't 100% gold either. And sometimes you are preoccupied, or tired, so what you deliver isn't the best of all possible deliverables. Sometimes you hallucinate, i.e. you are dead wrong when you think you are dead right.
This is the job of a boss: take fallible employees and turn what they produce into something actually valuable. The boss lets the grunts do the grunt work, and then they combine the output together, and do the due diligence, etc etc.
It's an entirely new skillset. But learning the new skillset isn't the real blocker--the real blocker is that you've got to stop thinking like a grunt and start thinking like an executive.
WHAT is it that you really want to do? Frame that question as clearly and as concretely as you can. Then farm out thee work to human or AI grunts, and be prepared to do your due diligence on the result.
I don’t really agree that AI can’t make development faster, though. What the author describes as the negative AI outcome is blind vibecoding. There are many other ways to use it, and even the basic “enhanced autocomplete” is a net benefit, especially since that functionality is dirt cheap or free.
https://getdx.com/blog/ai-productivity-gains-are-10-percent-...
Especially if you replace people with robots that don't need days off and have the people train their replacements.
You have to stop thinking like an employee or a worker bee, and start thinking like a boss.
Guess what, the work you give your boss isn't 100% gold either. And sometimes you are preoccupied, or tired, so what you deliver isn't the best of all possible deliverables. Sometimes you hallucinate, i.e. you are dead wrong when you think you are dead right.
This is the job of a boss: take fallible employees and turn what they produce into something actually valuable. The boss lets the grunts do the grunt work, and then they combine the output together, and do the due diligence, etc etc.
It's an entirely new skillset. But learning the new skillset isn't the real blocker--the real blocker is that you've got to stop thinking like a grunt and start thinking like an executive.
WHAT is it that you really want to do? Frame that question as clearly and as concretely as you can. Then farm out thee work to human or AI grunts, and be prepared to do your due diligence on the result.